I didn't have time to post these before Saturday morning, but I did send Wood a text with my picks. Here's a brief recap heading into Week 5 (as always, these are game time lines):
Toledo (+2.5) over SYRACUSE - Toledo burned me in Week 2, and I loved them receiving points against an Orange squad that was coming off a couple of shaky performances. Unfortunately, the Big East officials called an obvious extra point miss good for Syracuse late in the 4th and they prevailed in overtime 33-30, covering by the skin of their teeth. The lesson: avoid favoring teams that burned you just for the sake of it.
Eastern Michigan (+29) over PENN STATE - As always, Penn State consistently gets overvalued by Vegas to take advantage of their overzealous fan base. Despite playing one of the least successful programs in the FBS, betting against the Nits still pays huge dividends, as it did here with a 34-6 result. The lesson here: ride betting against Penn State for the remainder of the Paterno era.
Louisiana State University (-5.5) over WEST VIRGINIA - I LOVE LSU this year. In fact, I think they're a team destined to play for a National Championship. They had the balls to schedule two tough out of conference games in addition to their packed SEC slate and look all the better for doing so. Their defense rivals the 2003 Ohio State and 2009 Alabama defenses as the best I've ever witnessed. It came as no surprise to me that they easily dealt with the one dimensional Dana Holgerson Mountaineer offense. The lesson: the decisively better team should win road games.
Week 3: 1-2
Week 4: 2-1
Season: 8-4
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Friday, September 16, 2011
Lock It Down - Week 3
Welcome back to Week 3 of my college pick column. Every week I select three teams against the spread that I think are complete locks. I really thought about doing this yesterday afternoon ahead of the LSU/Mississippi State game, but pussed out at the last minute. Sometimes it's best to trust your very first instinct with the lines, but at any rate here are my three locks (lines from 5dimes.com as of 9/16/2011 11:52 pm):
Tennessee (+9.5) over FLORIDA - This opened at 8.5 and moved an entire point rather quickly. Florida hasn't played anybody (Florida Atlantic and UAB) and this match up is the first conference game for new coach Will Muschamp. While I like Florida to win outright, anything over a touchdown seems like a good value the other way. Tennessee looked impressive last week against Cincinnati, a much tougher team than either opponent of the Gators thus far. Furthermore, sophomore quarterback Tyler Bray took over as the leader of the program in that game by going 31 for 45 with 405 yards and 4 touchdowns. Playing in the Swamp no doubt brings its challenges, but lock it down, Tennessee plays a competitive game and covers.
Miami Ohio (+5.0) over MINNESOTA - The Golden Gophers nearly started the season with a road victory over USC, but fell in the end 19-17. The following week they lost at home to New Mexico State and their coach suffered from chronic seizures on the sideline. Coach Kill may be back this week, but the program still seems in dire shape and sometimes near upsets get overrated by the public, which I think is the case here. The Red Hawks nearly upset #21 Missouri on the road to open their season and had two weeks to prepare for the hapless Gophers. Vegas had it right when this line opened at 3, but the public drove it too high to ever consider Minnesota. Lock it down, not only does Miami OH cover the spread, the MAC conference scores a win over the Big Ten as the Red Hawks travel to TCF Bank Stadium and topple the Gophers.
Stanford (-8.5) over ARIZONA As with the previous game, I think Vegas had it right when they originally set the line at 10. A touchdown and a field goal seems like the logical disparity between these two teams, especially considering Arizona already lost to top ten competition last week, 37-14 against #9 Oklahoma State. On the other sideline, Andrew Luck has continued to look like a Heisman trophy candidate. Last week they stumbled a bit in the first half on the road against Duke, only to turn the ship around and smoke the Blue Devils 44-14. I believe the public moved this line because of that bad performance, yet they neglect the fact that football games last 60 minutes. Lock it down, after 60 minutes the Stanford Cardinal will defeat the Wildcats by two touchdowns.
There you have it. I hope everyone enjoys reading this column at least a quarter as much as I do writing it. Talk to you next week.
Last week: 2-1
Season: 5-1
Tennessee (+9.5) over FLORIDA - This opened at 8.5 and moved an entire point rather quickly. Florida hasn't played anybody (Florida Atlantic and UAB) and this match up is the first conference game for new coach Will Muschamp. While I like Florida to win outright, anything over a touchdown seems like a good value the other way. Tennessee looked impressive last week against Cincinnati, a much tougher team than either opponent of the Gators thus far. Furthermore, sophomore quarterback Tyler Bray took over as the leader of the program in that game by going 31 for 45 with 405 yards and 4 touchdowns. Playing in the Swamp no doubt brings its challenges, but lock it down, Tennessee plays a competitive game and covers.
Miami Ohio (+5.0) over MINNESOTA - The Golden Gophers nearly started the season with a road victory over USC, but fell in the end 19-17. The following week they lost at home to New Mexico State and their coach suffered from chronic seizures on the sideline. Coach Kill may be back this week, but the program still seems in dire shape and sometimes near upsets get overrated by the public, which I think is the case here. The Red Hawks nearly upset #21 Missouri on the road to open their season and had two weeks to prepare for the hapless Gophers. Vegas had it right when this line opened at 3, but the public drove it too high to ever consider Minnesota. Lock it down, not only does Miami OH cover the spread, the MAC conference scores a win over the Big Ten as the Red Hawks travel to TCF Bank Stadium and topple the Gophers.
Stanford (-8.5) over ARIZONA As with the previous game, I think Vegas had it right when they originally set the line at 10. A touchdown and a field goal seems like the logical disparity between these two teams, especially considering Arizona already lost to top ten competition last week, 37-14 against #9 Oklahoma State. On the other sideline, Andrew Luck has continued to look like a Heisman trophy candidate. Last week they stumbled a bit in the first half on the road against Duke, only to turn the ship around and smoke the Blue Devils 44-14. I believe the public moved this line because of that bad performance, yet they neglect the fact that football games last 60 minutes. Lock it down, after 60 minutes the Stanford Cardinal will defeat the Wildcats by two touchdowns.
There you have it. I hope everyone enjoys reading this column at least a quarter as much as I do writing it. Talk to you next week.
Last week: 2-1
Season: 5-1
Sunday, September 11, 2011
Air Hearn Bad QB League - Week 1
For info on what this is, go here.
We did our draft yesterday via email, and our league is shaping up to be competitive. A few differences in our league:
- We are going rotisserie style instead of head-to-head. We're a 6 team league, no point for H2H.
- In week 16, the top two compete for the prize.
- Our minimum and maximum number of starts are 4 and 12.
So down to the drafting:
House 1. Cincinnati Bengals
Rick 2. Carolina Panthers
Scott 3. Seahawks
Jason 4. Redskins
Boy 5. Jacksonvilke
Joe 6. Bills
Joe 7. Dolphins
Boy 8. Niners
Jason 9. Raiders
Scott 10. Colts
Rick 11. Browns
House 12. Titans
House 13. Chiefs
Rick 14. Lions
Jason 15. Vikings
Scott 16. Cardinals
Boy 17. Broncos
Joe 18. Cowboys
Joe 19, Giants
Boy 20. Bears
Jason 21. Jets
Scott 22. Baltimore
Rick 23. Eagles
House 24. Buccaneers
Here's how each team looks. This will be updated with starters (in italics), team names, and any notes from the manager. Each week, there will be a new post with scoring updates. Prize for the year yet to be determined:
Team House
Bengals
Chiefs
Titans
Buccaneers
Made More Money in College (Team Rick)
Panthers
Browns
Lions
Eagles
The Buddy Garrities (Team Scott)
Seahawks
Colts
Cardinals
Ravens
Team Jason
Redskins
Raiders
Vikings
Jets
Team Boy
Jags
Niners
Broncos
Bears
Team Wood
Bills
Dolphins
Cowboys
Giants
Friday, September 09, 2011
Lock It Down - Week 2
Every Friday night during the college football season I send my brother three picks against the spread that I think are complete locks. Unlike the NFL, the college lines aren't exactly a science with the high turnover of players, academic/off the field suspensions and larger rosters. Also, plenty of teams have enormous alumni bases that induce heavy one-sided betting for that team which drives the line in a bad direction (Texas and Penn State for example). For that and a few other reasons, sometimes it's easy to identify horribly skewed lines. I plan on running this segment every week and then again during bowl season. Without further ado, my three locks for Week 2 of the college football season (home team in caps).
MICHIGAN (+3) over Notre Dame - Every year Notre Dame garners more hype than any other team in the country, and every year they disappoint and typically miss making a bowl game. No team in the history of college football has started a season in the top 25 and finished unranked more than the Fighting Irish. This program hasn't been a serious contender since the Lou Holtz era, nearly two decades ago. Furthermore, their fan base is delusional and flush with cash, which always causes them to be vastly overvalued. Couple that with Michigan finally canning Rich Rodriguez, hiring a "Michigan man," hosting this game at night in front of a national televised audience and Notre Dame coming off an embarrassing home loss to South Florida, I love the Wolverines getting 3 here. Lock it down, Michigan covers.
Alabama (-10) over PENN STATE - A year ago these two teams met in Tuscaloosa in Week 2 with the Nittany Lions ranked #19 and Alabama at #1 coming off a national championship the previous season. Somehow the Crimson Tide were only a 12 point favorite, even though Penn State was starting a true freshman that missed early spring camp. No surprise that Alabama undressed the Nits 24-3 in a contest that easily could have ended 40ish-3 had it not been for Nick Saban calling off the dogs in the second half. As I mentioned earlier, Penn State is always overvalued and that remains the case here. For a team mired in quarterback controversy and coming off an unimpressive first game against lowly FCS Indiana State (which they failed to cover a 37 point spread, 41-7), I like the proven commodity in Nick Saban, Trent Richardson and an improved defense from last year's unit. Home games for Penn State usually result in them playing above themselves, but barring two scores from the defense and kicking game, I see Alabama wearing out the Lions in a similar fashion to last year. Lock it down, Alabama covers a double digit spread against Penn State for the second year in a row.
OHIO STATE (-18) over Toledo - Those of you who know me understand my intense hatred for the Buckeyes. But my brain tells me this line is simply a product of the off the field drama and not the facts. Ohio State has not lost a match up with an opponent within the state since the 1920's. The program prides itself on tearing up MAC competition in preparation for the conference schedule while other Big Ten schools schedule FCS cream puffs like Indiana State and Eastern Illinois. I don't care how good Toledo might be in their shit conference, the Buckeyes will lay the smack down on them in the Horseshoe. Regardless of the departure of Jim Tressel, Terrell Pryor and the black cloud of NCAA violations, this team should jump out to a big lead early in the second half and never look back. Keep your eyes open for Ohio State this season. While they may lose more games than usual, I think they'll be sneaky good against the spread due to a pubic that undervalues them. Lock it down, Ohio State wins this game by at least three touchdowns.
P.S. Since I didn't post this last week, I'll briefly mention that I went 3-0 last week with Boise State (-3.5) over GEORGIA, LSU (+1) over Oregon and Indiana State (+37) over PENN STATE. If you doubt my honestly, ask my brother and he will tell you.
MICHIGAN (+3) over Notre Dame - Every year Notre Dame garners more hype than any other team in the country, and every year they disappoint and typically miss making a bowl game. No team in the history of college football has started a season in the top 25 and finished unranked more than the Fighting Irish. This program hasn't been a serious contender since the Lou Holtz era, nearly two decades ago. Furthermore, their fan base is delusional and flush with cash, which always causes them to be vastly overvalued. Couple that with Michigan finally canning Rich Rodriguez, hiring a "Michigan man," hosting this game at night in front of a national televised audience and Notre Dame coming off an embarrassing home loss to South Florida, I love the Wolverines getting 3 here. Lock it down, Michigan covers.
Alabama (-10) over PENN STATE - A year ago these two teams met in Tuscaloosa in Week 2 with the Nittany Lions ranked #19 and Alabama at #1 coming off a national championship the previous season. Somehow the Crimson Tide were only a 12 point favorite, even though Penn State was starting a true freshman that missed early spring camp. No surprise that Alabama undressed the Nits 24-3 in a contest that easily could have ended 40ish-3 had it not been for Nick Saban calling off the dogs in the second half. As I mentioned earlier, Penn State is always overvalued and that remains the case here. For a team mired in quarterback controversy and coming off an unimpressive first game against lowly FCS Indiana State (which they failed to cover a 37 point spread, 41-7), I like the proven commodity in Nick Saban, Trent Richardson and an improved defense from last year's unit. Home games for Penn State usually result in them playing above themselves, but barring two scores from the defense and kicking game, I see Alabama wearing out the Lions in a similar fashion to last year. Lock it down, Alabama covers a double digit spread against Penn State for the second year in a row.
OHIO STATE (-18) over Toledo - Those of you who know me understand my intense hatred for the Buckeyes. But my brain tells me this line is simply a product of the off the field drama and not the facts. Ohio State has not lost a match up with an opponent within the state since the 1920's. The program prides itself on tearing up MAC competition in preparation for the conference schedule while other Big Ten schools schedule FCS cream puffs like Indiana State and Eastern Illinois. I don't care how good Toledo might be in their shit conference, the Buckeyes will lay the smack down on them in the Horseshoe. Regardless of the departure of Jim Tressel, Terrell Pryor and the black cloud of NCAA violations, this team should jump out to a big lead early in the second half and never look back. Keep your eyes open for Ohio State this season. While they may lose more games than usual, I think they'll be sneaky good against the spread due to a pubic that undervalues them. Lock it down, Ohio State wins this game by at least three touchdowns.
P.S. Since I didn't post this last week, I'll briefly mention that I went 3-0 last week with Boise State (-3.5) over GEORGIA, LSU (+1) over Oregon and Indiana State (+37) over PENN STATE. If you doubt my honestly, ask my brother and he will tell you.
Wednesday, September 07, 2011
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)