Lock It Down - Week 3

Welcome back to Week 3 of my college pick column. Every week I select three teams against the spread that I think are complete locks. I really thought about doing this yesterday afternoon ahead of the LSU/Mississippi State game, but pussed out at the last minute. Sometimes it's best to trust your very first instinct with the lines, but at any rate here are my three locks (lines from 5dimes.com as of 9/16/2011 11:52 pm):

Tennessee (+9.5) over FLORIDA - This opened at 8.5 and moved an entire point rather quickly. Florida hasn't played anybody (Florida Atlantic and UAB) and this match up is the first conference game for new coach Will Muschamp. While I like Florida to win outright, anything over a touchdown seems like a good value the other way. Tennessee looked impressive last week against Cincinnati, a much tougher team than either opponent of the Gators thus far. Furthermore, sophomore quarterback Tyler Bray took over as the leader of the program in that game by going 31 for 45 with 405 yards and 4 touchdowns. Playing in the Swamp no doubt brings its challenges, but lock it down, Tennessee plays a competitive game and covers.

Miami Ohio (+5.0) over MINNESOTA - The Golden Gophers nearly started the season with a road victory over USC, but fell in the end 19-17. The following week they lost at home to New Mexico State and their coach suffered from chronic seizures on the sideline. Coach Kill may be back this week, but the program still seems in dire shape and sometimes near upsets get overrated by the public, which I think is the case here. The Red Hawks nearly upset #21 Missouri on the road to open their season and had two weeks to prepare for the hapless Gophers. Vegas had it right when this line opened at 3, but the public drove it too high to ever consider Minnesota. Lock it down, not only does Miami OH cover the spread, the MAC conference scores a win over the Big Ten as the Red Hawks travel to TCF Bank Stadium and topple the Gophers.

Stanford (-8.5) over ARIZONA As with the previous game, I think Vegas had it right when they originally set the line at 10. A touchdown and a field goal seems like the logical disparity between these two teams, especially considering Arizona already lost to top ten competition last week, 37-14 against #9 Oklahoma State. On the other sideline, Andrew Luck has continued to look like a Heisman trophy candidate. Last week they stumbled a bit in the first half on the road against Duke, only to turn the ship around and smoke the Blue Devils 44-14. I believe the public moved this line because of that bad performance, yet they neglect the fact that football games last 60 minutes. Lock it down, after 60 minutes the Stanford Cardinal will defeat the Wildcats by two touchdowns.

There you have it. I hope everyone enjoys reading this column at least a quarter as much as I do writing it. Talk to you next week.

Last week: 2-1
Season: 5-1