Lock It Down - Week 2

Every Friday night during the college football season I send my brother three picks against the spread that I think are complete locks. Unlike the NFL, the college lines aren't exactly a science with the high turnover of players, academic/off the field suspensions and larger rosters. Also, plenty of teams have enormous alumni bases that induce heavy one-sided betting for that team which drives the line in a bad direction (Texas and Penn State for example). For that and a few other reasons, sometimes it's easy to identify horribly skewed lines. I plan on running this segment every week and then again during bowl season. Without further ado, my three locks for Week 2 of the college football season (home team in caps).

MICHIGAN (+3) over Notre Dame - Every year Notre Dame garners more hype than any other team in the country, and every year they disappoint and typically miss making a bowl game. No team in the history of college football has started a season in the top 25 and finished unranked more than the Fighting Irish. This program hasn't been a serious contender since the Lou Holtz era, nearly two decades ago. Furthermore, their fan base is delusional and flush with cash, which always causes them to be vastly overvalued. Couple that with Michigan finally canning Rich Rodriguez, hiring a "Michigan man," hosting this game at night in front of a national televised audience and Notre Dame coming off an embarrassing home loss to South Florida, I love the Wolverines getting 3 here. Lock it down, Michigan covers.

Alabama (-10) over PENN STATE - A year ago these two teams met in Tuscaloosa in Week 2 with the Nittany Lions ranked #19 and Alabama at #1 coming off a national championship the previous season. Somehow the Crimson Tide were only a 12 point favorite, even though Penn State was starting a true freshman that missed early spring camp. No surprise that Alabama undressed the Nits 24-3 in a contest that easily could have ended 40ish-3 had it not been for Nick Saban calling off the dogs in the second half. As I mentioned earlier, Penn State is always overvalued and that remains the case here. For a team mired in quarterback controversy and coming off an unimpressive first game against lowly FCS Indiana State (which they failed to cover a 37 point spread, 41-7), I like the proven commodity in Nick Saban, Trent Richardson and an improved defense from last year's unit. Home games for Penn State usually result in them playing above themselves, but barring two scores from the defense and kicking game, I see Alabama wearing out the Lions in a similar fashion to last year. Lock it down, Alabama covers a double digit spread against Penn State for the second year in a row.

OHIO STATE (-18) over Toledo - Those of you who know me understand my intense hatred for the Buckeyes. But my brain tells me this line is simply a product of the off the field drama and not the facts. Ohio State has not lost a match up with an opponent within the state since the 1920's. The program prides itself on tearing up MAC competition in preparation for the conference schedule while other Big Ten schools schedule FCS cream puffs like Indiana State and Eastern Illinois. I don't care how good Toledo might be in their shit conference, the Buckeyes will lay the smack down on them in the Horseshoe. Regardless of the departure of Jim Tressel, Terrell Pryor and the black cloud of NCAA violations, this team should jump out to a big lead early in the second half and never look back. Keep your eyes open for Ohio State this season. While they may lose more games than usual, I think they'll be sneaky good against the spread due to a pubic that undervalues them. Lock it down, Ohio State wins this game by at least three touchdowns.

P.S. Since I didn't post this last week, I'll briefly mention that I went 3-0 last week with Boise State (-3.5) over GEORGIA, LSU (+1) over Oregon and Indiana State (+37) over PENN STATE. If you doubt my honestly, ask my brother and he will tell you.